Thursday, December 29, 2016
2016 started strong with it's ups and downs on the economy. As we wind down the year amidst a change in the administration on January 20, 2017,
It has been said that the election of President elect Trump gave a good economic indicator boost from the investments and banking industry in lieu of his plans on taxes, jobs and the like, the future still lies beneath.
Such boost as economists' stated would have not made an impact if Hillary Clinton had won as the markets transcends Clinton was a carry over of the Obama policies.
Yet economist noted that the US economy has been stable and strong with Barack Obama's legacy of job creation and turning around the biggest recession in modern time after taking over the reign from George W. Bush in 2008.
With an average of 180,000 monthly jobs created from January 2016 to the elections in November 2016, the labor market had been growing in the last 74 months.
In Spite of this, the business investments and new productivity efforts did not turn out a lot as expected for the year. Hence, the quality of life of US workers was one the main drawback with Hillary Clinton's campaign and the Obama administration. It is said the a lot of mainstream workers in the midwest and where industrial zones gave a hefty approval and vote for newly elected Donald Trump.
Consumer confidence soared after 15 years this holiday season hence 20,000 point benchmark from the Dow Jones index which Trump twitted as a vote of confidence for his election.
The question lies on how a sitting president will be able to pass policy legislations with congress as after all this is where the divides on opinions was always the challenge of any sitting president. Trump talks about a 4% growth on the economy when he officially takes over, a goal we have to watch and see.
As of the writing of this article, outgoing President Obama had just signed an executive order with sanctions on Russia. Diplomats in Washington and San Francisco were given a 72 hour notice to depart the US while Trump acclaims he will lift the said sanctions as soon as he takes the oath of office. The great divide is with this signing today, the US Congress vowed to make their own independent investigation of the Russian hacking of the US Presidential elections of 2016 with a promise of more harsh sanctions.
As investments and productivity played a big factor in this turn around of the outcome of US elections being said that the declines were compared to the Great Recession and which started to improve right after the elections, this is where we can come back a year from now if this was indeed worth for the outcome.
The maybe's are there as what Obama mentioned that until you get to officially take the helm of the Office of the President is when you indeed will get to know what to do next. Credit goes to Trump as a billionaire business expert on managing the economic aspects needed but until he gets to sit on the chair will he realized what the position entails.
While the strong US dollar right now enjoys a rise in exports, domestic US companies which have international operations had been hurt as their goods and services became more expensive overseas. Hence, Trump's lessening the taxation in order to pushed local operations instead of international, has been one of the battlecry of this incoming administration.
Although the job growth in 2016 was exquisite, a lot of the growth factored on retail and fast foods for example which unequal opportunity factors as these jobs are low paying and minimum wage jobs.
So far economist viewed this neither positive or negative as this were not really good jobs per se.
Another factor affecting investments and productivity especially for small independent businesses are still lacked of working and access to capital. As an example, on the bookselling industry, booksellers were extremely hurt pre and post elections on book sales. The dominance of leading Amazon still continues to hold market share and the price stability of the actual book market value continues to be a challenge to be profitable as an independent small bookseller.
Connecting all of this in 2016 predicts 2017 to be a big working year to get back on track, be "positive" and after all we just have to wait and see how the new incoming administration will deliver their campaign promises to the detriment of the working class Americans.
As I continue my philanthropy in writing in behalf of the small independent businesses, the young entrepreneurs and low income families, my staff at ADLE International and http://www.affordable-booksonline.com contiuues our efforts on books which I thanked greatly.
Saturday, December 10, 2016
On December 22, 1016 comes a new data release from the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) from the last revision last Nov. 22, 2016.
On our particular industry on books retail line 31 S4 Book, periodical, and music stores - the 4th quarter of 2015 had 4,065 from 2015's 3rd quarter of 3,937 vs. 2014's 4th/3rd quarter of 3,865 and 3,876. This year 2016 - 3rd quarter was 3,964 and 2nd quarter was 4,044.
Then looking at line 35 S4 on Used Merchandise Stores, the 4th quarter had 4,037 and 4,154 on the 3rd quarter of 2015. 2014's 4th quarter was 3,820 and the 3rd quarter was 3,907. 2016's 3rd quarter is 3,976 and 2nd quarter is 3,940.
On line 37 S2 Electronic Shopping and mail order houses (Nonstore retailers) 2015's 4th quarter was 112,187, 3rd quarter for 2015 was 109,582 versus 2014's 4th and 3rd quarter of 100,752 and 97,741. 2016's 3rd quarter is 124,191 and 2nd quarter is 121,019.
Hovering at this data, the true facts over the years are that the 2nd quarter is the back to school time and the 4th quarter is the holidays. Hence, the 3rd quarter is usually a drop in between for bookselling. Used merchandise had a growth in the 3rd quarter of 2016 as this category is general meaning it embodies all used merchandise where clothing plays a big factor as well.
Although line 38 S2 Electronic Shopping is also general in category, it is said that since 2012 to 2016, books online shopping has been a growing trend in this category. Although, a typical traditional book buyer still goes to a book retail store front, it is a fact that online book sales has consistently grown over the years.
So from traditional big book online marketplaces also comes the typical brand big box retailers like Sears.com or even technology websites like Newegg.com now augmenting a lot of accessory sales on what they carry with new release books.
Textbooks still plays a big chunk online for students but new release books has been growing more and more than used books. This is especially true with fiction, juvenile fictions, and bestsellers like Harry Potter's "Fantastic Beasts".
As the online space continous to grow in the bookselling industry, still the typical challenges are there for independent bookstores and online book sellers. From the dominance of mighty Amazon, minimum wage, health care for employees to "Still" lack of working capital and expansion for warehousing and home offices.
Thus, this is what faces the upcoming Trump administration's slogan of making America Great Again. Now that a billionaire businessman takes over the US Presidency, lies the question of how this administration will role out it's economic policies fitted for small business in industries that had grown over the years.
Come 2017, the data speaks as well as the problems faced by independent booksellers.
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